Everyday Killings in Mexico Decline Over a Third In the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Official Figures

The typical figure of per-day murders per month in the country has fallen by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, according to recent official statistics. However, security specialists have warned that murder data may not signal improved countrywide security.

Significant Reduction in Per-Day Figures

Officials reported an average of almost 55 killings a day in the month of November compared with roughly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum began the presidential office in the previous September. This data was delivered by the chief of the nation's federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in murders that have been recorded in these past months is remarkably important,” the President stated, explaining that last month the lowest amount of murders were documented for any single November in the past decade.

Recent Context and Official Strategy

Violent drug cartel infighting, combined with the government’s heavily militarised efforts to confront the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s homicide numbers rise sharply in recent years. The figure reached a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the country’s national statistics office.

That gave Mexico a homicide figure more than four times greater than that of the United States. Since then, murders have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. The President has linked her national security strategy for an apparently sharper decline in homicides in the current year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the Mexican leader stated: “We have a strategy, there is tracking of the plan, and we have detailed tracking municipality by municipality in some cases. The strategy works. And we have to continue working at it daily.”

The main pillars of Sheinbaum’s safety plan encompass:

• Strengthening Mexico’s national guard.
• Advancing intelligence and investigative capabilities.
• Enhanced cooperation between various authorities.

Analyst Warnings and Data Limitations

But, security analysts warned that using murder statistics to paint a picture of pacification was misleading. This is notably true in light of the rise in different crimes such as abductions.

“That would be excellent information if this was a drop, but I think we shouldn't just look at the murder data and say: ‘Oh well, good,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be guardedly hopeful.”

Per the public policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, killings in total dropped by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year relative to the same timeframe the previous year. However, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in certain states have increased by up to 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is no longer valid for estimating the context of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the resources or the will to accurately identify and categorize bodies. Second, organised [criminals] … have the capability to conceal violence through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that relying on month-to-month averages of daily killings was similarly problematic because it might mask periods when there were especially high numbers of killings.

“Employing the per-day average makes spikes of violence less visible,” he said.

Detentions and Confiscations as Measures of Success

An area where the government can point to the success of its security plan is on arrests and confiscations. Close to 40,000 people were apprehended between October 2024 and November 2025 for serious crimes, per government figures. More than 20,000 weapons were seized and 311 tonnes of drugs seized.

“Donald Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of criminal groups. It’s extremely in political terms profitable,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Societal Anger

However notwithstanding these efforts, Mexico continues to be grappling with severe bloodshed, with multiple states in the midst of cartel-driven bloodshed. Last month there was a prominent killing of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders killed in the past year.

Weeks later, many thousands of protesters took to the streets in Mexico City and across the country to show their frustration at corruption and drug violence.

“The administration frames [data] in a manner to construct a picture of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s extremely potent, socially it’s extremely problematic,” Vargas concluded.